Yields in the Australian Wheatbelt
Although rainfall patterns vary between states from year to year the impact on yields averages out over longer time periods such that average long-term yields are roughly equal for all states, having averaged approximately 1.6 tonnes per hectare over the last decade (2001-02 to 2010-11).
Average wheat yield by Australian state, 2001-02 to 2010-11
The primary reason Australian wheat yields are relatively low by international standards is the fact that Australian farmers have become highly specialised in low rainfall farming techniques. As a result, the Australian Wheatbelt has extended inland over time to areas where rainfall is lower. Indeed, the majority of the Wheatbelt receives low to medium rainfall, with the largest single category of farms by land area being in the low rainfall areas.
Because yields are lower on lower rainfall farms, this depresses average yields for the country as a whole. High rainfall farms in Australia show yields more in line with global averages (2.86 tonnes per hectare over the last decade, 2001-02 to 2010-11).
It is the timing and reliability of rainfall (as opposed to extent) that determines the variability of yields and there is wider yield variability between Australian states than is suggested by the average long-term yield figures. Western Australia benefits from the most timely and reliable rainfall of the Australian states with distinct wet winter growing seasons and dry summer harvest periods. As a result, variability in yields is lowest in Western Australia, with New South Wales and Victoria having the highest degree of variability.
Variability of wheat production and area sown by Australian state, 2001-02 to 2010-11
(Note: Variability in the above graph has been calculated using the coefficient of variation, a statistical measure that describes the degree of divergence from the average. The larger the value, the more variation there was in wheat production and area sown over the ten year period.)
It is important to note, however, that given the diversity of climate conditions within each sate, state-wide yield averages and variability data are not sufficient to assess individual farming districts within each state. For instance, in any given state grain yields generally decline and yield variability generally increases for farms further from the coast. Due to differences in rainfall reliability and timing, even districts with the same average annual rainfall extent can exhibit widely differing yield profiles.
Since yield reliability (rather than average yield level) is one of the most important determinants of farm profits, rainfall reliability and extreme weather events have a major impact on investment returns. For a more detailed analysis on the relationship between yield variability and investment returns, download our free report, Comparative Analysis of the Australian Wheatbelt. The document also addresses the key question: which region of Australia has delivered superior returns to agricultural investors in the past and is most likely to offer superior risk adjusted returns in the future?
References and data sources:
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Historical Climate Data, 2012
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Selected Agricultural Commodities Data Series, 2012
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Crops and Pastures Data Series, 2012
- Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Agricultural Commodities Statistics, 2012
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Agricultural Statistics Database, 2012
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Agriculture and Food Statistics, 2012
Farming is like any other business: all other things being equal, income is dictated by the quality of the management team. Even enterprises with similar soil, climate and business model can show a high degree of variance. This means tenant / manager selection is a critical component of the agricultural investment process.
Inefficiencies in the farmland pricing mechanism are one of least exploited opportunities to increase returns as a farmland investor. When it comes to buying agricultural assets, we are able to help our clients beat the market because of our unconventional approach to acquiring farms and the information advantage we have in the markets in which we specialise.
Investing in Australian agriculture
Australia’s robust economy, strategic location and investment friendly business environment have made the country one of the world’s top destinations for foreign investment, with FDI inflows of over twice the OECD average (% of GDP basis, 2011).
Geographic and sector focus
For investors, the choice of agricultural sector will be driven by your risk tolerance and overall investment objectives. As a general rule, arable agriculture (i.e. the cultivation of annual crops, in particular grain) is the least volatile farming sector.